There is a high probability that he will intervene in the Baltics to test NATO's Article 5, putin knows that if he crosses the red line and attacks a Nato ally, he will be defeated. NATO will ensure that the Alliance and Allies are sufficiently prepared to counter hybrid attacks in whatever form they may materialise. Advising NATO on Hybrid Warfare. In modern hybrid warfare, the success results for the initiating actor fall to 40% with two ongoing stalemates, but the initiator has less that a coin toss of a chance for a decisive early victory. Finally, the prospect of both challenges occurring in parallel is considered. . The term hybrid threat refers to an action conducted by state or non-state actors, whose goal is to undermine or harm a target by combining overt and covert military and non-military means. Amicus Curiae Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller welcomed European Commissioner for the Security Union Sir Julian King to NATO on Thursday (14 March 2019), for talks on how NATO and the EU can work more closely together to counter hybrid warfare. In July 2018, NATO leaders agreed to set up counter-hybrid support teams, which provide tailored targeted assistance to Allies upon their request, in preparing against and responding to hybrid activities. However, hybrid warfare as a term itself is a poor descriptor. "(5) Both of these definitions align with Frank Hoffman's vision of hybrid warfare, which is also the most predominantly accepted military where a wide range of overt and covert military, The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats located in Helsinki, Finland serves as a hub of expertise, assisting participating countries in improving their civil-military capabilities, resilience and preparedness to counter hybrid threats. What is it?” he added. Riga, LV1048, Latvia. Hybrid warfare has become a term for modern warfare or for the next war. Hybrid warfare can be used to describe the flexible and complex dynamics of the battlespace requiring a highly adaptable and resilient respo Secondly, it discusses the use of ‘cyber’ in the context of ‘hybrid threats’ before it, thirdly, addresses some implications for Indeed, while this type of conflict has only been publically labelled in the last decade, the roots can be found… a rather new threat definition and its (temporary) inclusion in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) new comprehensive defence approach with a reflection on the last Swedish experiment. Confusion and disorder ensue when weaponize… The Enhanced Cyber Defence Policy was also endorsed in Wales. Let us be quite clear about that. D. EFINITION. State of art on hybrid warfare in Czech academic cycles 14 4. (I analyzed this idea in more depth here.). Hybrid threats are dealt with more prominently in the Warsaw Summit Communiqué than in the Wales Summit Declaration, and they are now directly linked to cyber threats (paras 71, 72 and 135). 23 If properly used, these terms should provide consistency and help prevent misunderstanding. NATO continues to strengthen its cooperation and coordination with such partners as Finland, Sweden, Ukraine and the European Union (EU) to counter hybrid threats and enhance resilience. Training, exercises and education also play a significant role in preparing to counter hybrid threats. The NATO alliance faces not only a conventional threat from Russia, but also one that is more insidious in nature—hybrid warfare. Hybrid war breaks down the traditional binary delineation between war and peace. Hybrid CoE Hybrid CoE is an independent, network-based international organisation countering hybrid threats. WWE star tells how Marine Corps service helped her succeed, Money Minute: Student loan repayment and consolidation, Money Minute: Sending cash by mobile apps — convenient, but be careful, https://www.defensenews.com © 2021 Sightline Media Group, NATO’s London meetings are off to a rocky start, The top stories to follow in 2021 - Defense News Weekly, 1.4.21. Hybrid warfare occupies the uncomfortable middle ground between conventional and unconventional warfare, mixing elements of both in the process. Ukraine sees two paths for joining NATO. It continues to increase the readiness and preparedness of its forces, and has strengthened its decision-making process and its command structure as part of its deterrence and defence posture. A strategy and actionable implementation plans on NATO’s role in countering hybrid warfare … hybrid warfare and determines the definition to be used throughout this study. Hybrid warfare. The Alliance supports Allies’ efforts to identify national vulnerabilities and strengthen their own resilience, if requested. Increasing resilience of the Czech Republic to hybrid threats 24 Miroslav Mareš 1. Hybrid methods of warfare, such as propaganda, deception, sabotage and other non-military tactics have long been used to destabilise adversaries. Trump wants NATO to be more involved in the Middle East. Linear conflicts are defined by a sequential progression of a planned strategy by opposing sides, whereas nonlinear conflict is the simultaneous deployment of multiple, complementary military and non-military warfare tactics. Phone: +371 26533953. e-mail: info [at] stratcomcoe [dot] org Over the last few years, “hybrid warfare” has become firmly established in the Western security lexicon. Hard power underpins hybrid warfare. It was inaugurated in October 2017 by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, together with European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission Federica Mogherini. If the new threat is so complex, political, and subtle, shouldn’t the response be the same? the NATO Capstone Concept characterizes hybrid threats as "those posed by adversar-ies, with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives. Other Centres of Excellence contribute to NATO’s efforts to counter hybrid threats, including the Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence in Riga, Latvia; the Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence in Tallinn, Estonia; and the Energy Security Centre of Excellence in Vilnius, Lithuania. Part 1 – ‘Hybrid warfare’ and ‘hybrid threats’ are A nonlinear war is fought when a state employs conventional and irregular military forces in conjunction with psychological, economic, political, and cyber assaults. 3 Part of the conceptual confusion stems from the fact that there is no standard, commonly-accepted definition of hybrid warfare. An analyst looks at code in the malware lab of a cyber security defense lab. Address: 11b Kalnciema str. author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the NATO Defense College or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The Potential for Russian Hybrid Aggression. to NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT). NATO Secretary General's Annual Report 2019 NATO (19 March 2020) See page 29. U.S. President Donald Trump landed in London, prepared to decry French President Emmanuel Macron's description of NATO as brain dead. Recognizing Russia would stand little chance of winning a protracted conventional conflict with NATO, Moscow seeks instead to pursue its interests without overt use of military power if possible. The period of the Vietnam War from 1962 to 1968 would fit the definition of hybrid war until the Tet Offensive in 1968 when the Viet Cong ceased to exist as a serious military threat. To this end, NATO forces have to be able to react in a quick and agile way, whenever and wherever needed. We know now that the Viet Cong movement was totally controlled by Hanoi, but many Americans still believe that it was a native movement within South Vietnam. What does hybrid warfare mean? The Pentagon looks to shore up potential holes in the U.S. missile defense system, a WWE star reveals how service in the Marine Corps helped make her a success, and Military Times editors look ahead to the biggest stories they'll be tracking in 2021 as the new year gets underway - it's Defense News Weekly for January 4, 2021. The same issue … Thus, the purpose of this article is to contribute to the understanding the hybrid warfare by developing a perceptional map, which will, if possible, pave the way to new theories by creating taxonomy as a result of Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) analysis. The term hybrid warfare has no consistent definition but generally refers to deniable and covert actions, supported by the threat or use of conventional and/or nuclear forces, to influence the domestic politics of target countries. 3 Countering hybrid warfare Executive summary The international consensus on ‘hybrid warfare’ is clear: no one understands it, but everyone, including NATO and the European Union, agrees it is a problem. ‘Hybrid warfare’, sometimes known as ‘hybrid threats’, became a trendy buzzword in recent years, used to describe a panoply of seemingly different threats. When Dr Andrew Mumford published Proxy Warfare in 2013, one reviewer called it “an important contribution to our understanding of war” (Professor James Wirtz, the Dean of the US Naval Postgraduate School). It will deter hybrid attacks on the Alliance and, if necessary, will defend Allies concerned. NATO’s Joint Intelligence and Security Division has a hybrid analysis branch that helps improve situational awareness. Meaning of hybrid warfare. Inauguration of Hybrid CoE with NATO Secretary General and EUHR Mogherini - Q&A, NATO Secretary General press point at inauguration of Hybrid CoE, Inauguration of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, NATO Deputy Secretary General on countering hybrid threats, 15 FEB 2018, 1/2, Statement on the implementation of the Joint Declaration signed by the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, and the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 2018 Brussels Summit Declaration (para. Hybrid warfare has been in the limelight for more than a decade within the Western strategic discourse. NATO has a strategy on its role in countering hybrid warfare and stands ready to … NATO and the European Union (EU) are working on strategies to strengthen defensive capabilities and prevent hybrid attacks. It uses a blend of military, economic, diplomatic, criminal, and informational means to achieve desired political goals. Hybrid warfare is the effort to achieve strategic objectives without using significant force, the general said. Besides, the definitions of some terms that are widely associated with hybrid warfare are provided. The Warsaw Summit took place almost two years after the Wales Summit, at which NATO recognised that international law applies to cyberspace and that cyber defence is part of NATO’s core task of collective defence. “Future Warfare: The Rise of Hybrid Wars.” By: Andrew Chuter December 3, 2019 . D. EFINITION. Hybrid Warfare is Under the Threshold of Article 5 . After the U.S.-led military intervention in Iraq in 2003, Iran hoped to check the The term hybrid warfare has no consistent definition but generally refers to deniable and covert actions, supported by the threat or use of conventional and/or nuclear forces, to … ... #Communication, #intelligence, #NATO, The link was added 14 September 2020. Hybrid warfare is a term that sought to capture the blurring and blending of previously separate categories of conflict. It also actively counters propaganda – not with more propaganda, but with facts – online, on air and in print. NATO is prepared to assist any Ally against hybrid threats as part of collective defence. "(5) Both of these definitions align with Frank Hoffman's vision of hybrid warfare, which is also the most predominantly accepted military If deterrence should fail, NATO stands ready to defend any Ally against any threat. Andrew Mumford. hybrid warfare, supplemented by the NATO hybrid warfare playbook, laying out who does what in dealing with complex security threat scenarios that combine militias, cyber-attacks, targeting of critical infrastructure, as well as types of assistance the alliance would provide should a member state come under outside pressure. the NATO Capstone Concept characterizes hybrid threats as "those posed by adversar-ies, with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives. This strategy is called a hybrid war, he said, and NATO is coming to grips with the concept. To deter hybrid threats, NATO is resolved to act promptly, whenever and wherever necessary. 4 They are international research centres that are nationally or multi-nationally funded and staffed. NATO also serves as a hub for expertise, providing support to Allies in areas such as civil preparedness and chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) incident response; critical infrastructure protection; strategic communications; protection of civilians; cyber defence; energy security; and counter-terrorism. What is new about attacks seen in recent years is their speed, scale and intensity, facilitated by rapid technological change and global interconnectivity. Hybrid war strategies are always underway, although at certain moments they may become more acute and intense or cross over into conventional combat operations. where a wide range of overt and covert military, The hybrid warfare is an unstructured form of war, used by States, Hybrid warfare is a military strategy which employs political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyberwarfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, lawfare and foreign electoral intervention. This article analyzes the emergence of 'hybrid warfare', which blurs the line between military and civilian forms of organization, both in the conduct and the target of warfare. The Warsaw Summit took place amidst the persistent migrant crisis in Europe, the ongoing armed conflicts in Syria and Iraq, the partly-frozen armed conflict in Ukraine, and in the aftermath of the so-called ‘Brexit’ referen… Hybrid warfare — also known as grey zone conflict or low-intensity conflict — is a reality, and the U.S. military must be ready to confront and deter it, a senior intelligence officer said. Since 2015, NATO has had a strategy on its role in countering hybrid warfare. In the last decade, some of the most important military forces and coalitions in the world, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), have attempted to address and counter so-called hybrid threats. The primary responsibility to respond to hybrid threats or attacks rests with the targeted nation. British military doctrine, in contrast, follows Huber’s definition, and captures hybrid warfare as an aspect of irregu - lar warfare. The definition encompasses the key elements of hybrid warfare: conventional and non-conventional, blurring of domains and involving elements previously allocated to the unlawful domain. B. NATO’ S . 72), Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (EADRCC), NATO Public Diplomacy Division’s Co-Sponsorship Grants. By defencematters; 06 February 2016; 10:58; Over the past two years, NATO has been focused on hybrid warfare. Sweden’s defense minister on relations with America, Russian threats and the European Union. As we shall soon discover, Hybrid Warfare (HW) has much older origins than would first be assumed. 2. The first definition of hybrid warfare is given by Hoffman. Definition of hybrid warfare in the Definitions.net dictionary. Much is made these days of the new challenge to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) from “hybrid warfare” — the kind of blended military-political-intelligence-economic operations Russia has launched in Ukraine. The Centre is an initiative of the Government of Finland, supported by 23 other nations, as well as NATO and the EU. “One of the things about hybrid war is defining it. (I analyzed this idea in more depth here.). Sign up for the Early Bird Brief, the defense industry's most comprehensive news and information, straight to your inbox. The speed, scale and intensity of hybrid threats have increased in recent years. ple, defines hybrid warfare as conflict involving a combination of conventional military forces and irregulars (guerrillas, insurgents, and terrorists), which could include both state and non-state actors, aimed at achieving a common political purpose. In addition, Centres of Excellence work alongside and contribute knowledge and expertise to the Alliance. . Viewed from this perspective, hybrid warfare … NATO’s response to hybrid threats 18 Bibliography 20 II. ... What distinguishes this definition of hybrid warfare from those discussed earlier is the emphasis on non-military methods of conflict and, in particular, While ‘hybrid warfare’ is a term very present in top policy-makers’ soundbites, among the staff and at national levels within NATO, the term is dismissed and consciously avoided. London Declaration. During the last five years, this slippery concept … News, Official Texts, Opinions) Defending against Hybrid Threats. The Alliance has developed a strategy on its role in countering hybrid warfare to help address these threats. Some $400 billion will be spent on defense investment by European nations and Canada by 2024‎, but more needs to be done, he said. Hybrid CoE Strategic Analysis 24: Ambiguity in hybrid warfare. National Security Advisers meet at NATO Headquarters, NATO Deputy Secretary General to speak on Countering Hybrid Threats, Secretary General participates in Hybrid Centre of Excellence inauguration with Finnish leaders and EU High Representative, Remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Inauguration of the Helsinki Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, with EU High Representative Federica Mogherini. The West’s preoccupation with the Gerasimov doctrine and Russia’s hybrid warfare also obscures the role of Russia’s military power in its foreign and national security policies. Hybrid warfare often exists in a gray area between war and peace, ... NATO’s eastern flank by targeting ethnic Russian minorities. NATO and EU discuss defence against hybrid warfare. A recent experiment raised important issues concerning how NATO does business. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance currently faces not only a conventional threat from Russia, but also a more insidious threat—that of hybrid warfare. NATO to define plan to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. ‘hybrid warfare’ and ‘hybrid threats’ to provide further clarity. LONDON – NATO will agree on a plan to respond to the new weapons and tactical threat posed by Russia and others when alliance leaders meet here on Dec. 4, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said opening the NATO Engages think tank event in London. Key Characteristics of Russian Hybrid Warfare Russian hybrid warfare has at least three main characteristics. The concept features prominently in NATO and EU policy instruments and has informed the United States’ National Security Strategy adopted in December 2017. . BACHMANN, Hybrid Threats, cyber warfare and NATO’s comprehensive approach for countering 21st century threats: mapping the new frontier of global risk and security management. McCuen sees hybrid warfare as using a variety of tools to persuade the domestic population of a targeted state. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the inauguration of the European Centre of Excellence (CoE) for Countering Hybrid Threats (Finland, 2 October 2017). "It starts with investment in both our conventional forces which are so important to effect deterrence and in those new capabilities needed to address the challenges that lay ahead,"he said. By giving us your email, you are opting in to the Early Bird Brief. One possible definition of hybrid warfare proposed by NATO is war where the objective is achieved by integrating military, paramilitary and civilian measures, trying to influence policymakers and decision-makers. What is new about attacks seen in recent years is their speed, scale and intensity, facilitated by rapid technological change and global interconnectivity. Emerging technologies like hypersonic missiles and quantum‎ computing are changing the threat landscape, the defense secretary said, urging that NATO must to understand the challenges and adapt accordingly. Search for documents on Hybrid Warfare on the NATO website. It economizes the use of force. Hybrid Warfare : Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present by Murray, Williamson & Mansoor, Peter R. Being prepared to prevent, counter and respond to hybrid attacks, whether by state or non-state actors, is a top priority for NATO. On 1 December 2015, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and then European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, announced the launching of a new hybrid warfare program and a new NATO hybrid warfare strategy. It risks creating the impression that hybrid tactics can exist separately from Russia’s military capabilities. What keeps Britain’s defense secretary up at night? Rather than develop strategies based on ‘hybrid’ challenges (an elusive and catch-all term), I … Axel Hagelstam of the Finnish Mission to NATO and Kirsti Narinen of the Centre explain. The terms hybrid warfare, new generation warfare and grey zone are often used interchangeably to describe the Russian operational approach towards the post-Soviet states or former Soviet republics. The third and fourth parts address the implications of each challenge for national Defence policy, strategy and capability. hybrid warfare use the term to describe the area where regular warfare and irregular warfare intersect and blend to create a new form of warfare. Hybrid wars are, broadly defined, conflicts involving one or more nonstate actors that nevertheless possess the attributes of a state’s military. To be prepared, NATO continuously gathers, shares and assesses information in order to detect and attribute any ongoing hybrid activity. While there is no single perception of what ‘hybrid warfare’ is, the focus is on concrete responses to threats posed by Russia and, to a lesser extent, ISIL. NATO is strengthening its coordination with partners, including the European Union, in efforts to counter hybrid threats. While there is still no unanimously agreed-upon definition of ‘Hybrid Warfare’, the MC considered using the terminology shown in Figure 1. British military doctrine, in contrast, follows Huber’s definition, and captures hybrid warfare as an aspect of irregu - lar warfare. While neither the European Union (EU) nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation ( NATO) appear to have a clear definition of this term, both organisations are taking steps to ‘counter McCuen sees hybrid warfare as using a variety of tools to persuade the domestic population of a targeted state. The reality of hybrid war is ever-changing intensity of conflict. Russia is disturbing the peace, and NATO countries must combat its hybrid strategy, the alliance’s supreme allied commander for Europe said., ... NATO Moves to Combat Russian Hybrid Warfare … © REUTERS. Hybrid methods of warfare, such as propaganda, deception, sabotage and other non-military tactics have long been used to destabilise adversaries. Hybrid methods are used to blur the lines between war and peace, and attempt to sow doubt in the minds of target populations. The first definition of hybrid warfare is given by Hoffman. If the new threat is so complex, political, and subtle, shouldn’t the response be the same? (Eds.) Given the recent growth in non-conventional warfare, it seems an appropriate point to examine this apparently recent phenomena. In the words of one NATO/ACT official, the task is to “paint the face on the faceless enemy”3 and to develop the hybrid threat concept, as well as examine viable and effective strategies to meet hybrid threats. This thesis uses the Williamson Murray and McGregor Knox definitions of Military Revolution (MR) and Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) in order to determine if hybrid warfare falls under MR or RMA. Hybrid Warfare as a Strategy. There is no fixed definition of hybrid warfare, but it includes elements of cyber and information warfare, economic and political manipulation, and kinetic military action. It is an amorphous definition for an amorphous strategy. The advent of cyber warfare, hybrid warfare, the militarisation of space and the use of artificial intelligence are examples that necessitate that we transform policies, strategies, concepts, doctrine, procedures as well as capabilities and human capital to meet current and future challenges. This sends a strong signal that the Alliance is improving both its political and military responsiveness and its ability to deploy appropriate forces to the right place at the right time. B. NATO’ S . Will either work? Over the last few years, “hybrid warfare” has become firmly established in the Western security lexicon. Hybrid warfare occupies the uncomfortable middle ground between conventional and unconventional warfare, mixing elements of both in the process. Hybrid tactics, which include cyber-attacks, disinformation and economic interference, are increasingly used against NATO and EU member countries. . This includes exercising of decision–making processes and joint military and non-military responses in cooperation with other actors. It is population-centric. As part of their increasingly closer cooperation, NATO and the EU have stepped up their cooperation on dealing with hybrid threats, with a special focus on countering cyber attacks. The Joint Intelligence and Security Division at NATO Headquarters improves the Alliance’s understanding and analysis of hybrid threats. The concept features prominently in NATO and EU policy instruments and has informed the United States’ National Security Strategy adopted in December 2017. Russia’s Hybrid War in Ukraine: Breaking the Enemy’s Ability to Resist The Finnish Institute of International Affairs, FIIA report (16 June 2015) NATO and New Ways of Warfare: Defeating Hybrid … In the past several years there has been a noticeable increase in the range and intensity of Russian hybrid warfare attacks. The definition encompasses the key elements of hybrid warfare: conventional and non-conventional, blurring of domains and involving elements previously allocated to the unlawful domain. Iran fallout deepens rift between America and Europe. Mattis, James N., and Frank G. Hoffman. Page 29 Under the Threshold of Article 5 and in print war down... Using the terminology shown in Figure 1 Russia, but also One that is more insidious in nature—hybrid warfare confusion! 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